Senior Partners

Research program overview

Simulations of major disasters and response effects require complex combinations of multi-source data to study equally complex outcomes. As a consequence, simulations disaster processes are either opaque or simplified. For instance, simulations of infectious disease transmission are often reduced to calculation of the basic reproduction number Ro (a theoretical concept describing the average number of people expected to become infected when an infective enters a totally susceptible population). Therefore, the usability of the models for practitioners preparing for disease outbreaks and bioterrorist attacks has heretofore been limited. In order to deal with this problem, we have specified requirements necessary to render the simulation models intelligible and effective in public health settings. We have subsequently developed a flexible software architecture where multi-level simulations can be performed.

Simulations of complex disaster intervention strategies have contributed to a better understanding of the relative effects of different circumstances and preventive measures. However, the simulations provide little guidance regarding the dynamic maintenance of the logistic chains involved in the implementation of interventions, in particular because attention is not paid to the sustenance of the interaction between different societal sectors during a pandemic. This crucial sustenance was painfully experienced during the Katrina disaster. During an influenza pandemic, the attention will be focused at delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. These interventions will be planned both at national and community levels, and will require differing levels of infrastructural support. Simulations can be used for identification of weaknesses in these plans, but require adequately updated socio-demographic models, existing societal infrastructure models , intervention implementation models , and morbidity data describing the circulating virus.

In particular, we contend that methodologies for analyses of disasters and disaster response have to reflect the factual geography, i.e., the spatial distribution of physical meeting places in specific societies. Therefore, social geographic issues related to such models have been examined. We have displayed how the social geographic characteristics of mixing networks, in particular when these significantly deviate from the random-mixing norm, can be represented in order to enhance prediction of epidemic patterns, and concluded that social geography, social networks and simulation models of directly transmitted infectious diseases are fundamentally linked.

The aim of current research (winter 2009) is to develop a two-tier simulation environment where disaster response can be formatively evaluated. This environment will support studies of key infrastructural elements with regard to organizational, legal, and policy strategies, and their susceptibility to the disaster phenomenon itself. The two-tier simulation model will use an ontology management module for flexible representation of data from different sources in a common environment, and allow portrayal of factual policy structures.

The flexibility provided by the ontology management module makes the simulation environment to be a particularly suitable reference platform for the development of disaster response policies in large industrial enterprises. The interactive environment supports execution of experiments that can pinpoint issues and weaknesses in the present management of these situations. Questions that can be addressed include (1) what should be the redistribution of formal responsibilities, (2) what organizational levels hurdles exist in the co-operation areas, and (3) what the tradeoffs are between investments in technology versus increased training and competence.

The main contribution of the project will be a technical product that can be used for development of disaster response strategies that are less likely to fail due to breaches of the social infrastructure. The research will also provide contributions regarding the integration of technologies, methods, and databases from areas relevant to for restoring safety in the Swedish society during a major disaster, but today standing separated.